The Odds

The letter's model, run backward. Today's price implies a probability. Argue with it.

Today's price implies
…
Loading today's price and difficulty…
The scenario What you are pricing
Pick a success case. The model says what probability today's price assigns to it. Defaults are the letter's. Type the probability you believe. The model says what Bitcoin is worth today. This is the half the letter does not print.
Parity with gold
%
$ trillion
years
% / yr, real
A higher rate means more fear about the wait, and raises the implied probability.
$ trillion
What Bitcoin is worth if it stays a niche. Above zero lowers the implied probability.
%
Implied probability Success case down, discount rate across
outlined = your inputs
The visible pool
Wealth held for later, not for use. Gross values in today's dollars from the letter's sources. Bitcoin is the white sliver; the bracket is the success case you are pricing.
A scale reference, not a target: the claims overlap, and much of it is houses people live in and bonds that pay for roads. Halve the success case and the implied probability roughly doubles.
The ticket One hash's odds at today's difficulty
Every hash is a lottery ticket and the energy is its price. Enter one machine's hashrate to see how long it would wait for a block alone.
The network
One machine, running alone
TH/s
Here be dragons Skip this if you trust the page. It is here so you can check it.

The model treats Bitcoin's price as a probability-weighted blend of a success state and a failure state, discounted to today:

market cap = p × success ÷ (1 + r)years + (1 − p) × failure ÷ (1 + r)years

Run backward, solve for p. Run forward, solve for market cap, and divide by circulating supply for a price per coin. Values are in today's dollars, so r is a real rate. The "one in N" on this page is the rounded reciprocal of p.

Three caveats from the letter. A higher discount rate (more fear) raises the implied probability, so the 10 percent column is on the conservative side of what the market thinks. A failure state above zero lowers it by a point or two. And the pool is a scale reference, not a target: the full version of the model takes each asset class, estimates how much of its value is a store-of-value premium rather than use, and asks how much of that premium Bitcoin could take. Those inputs are judgment calls, which is why every one of them is editable here.

Live inputs: price, market cap and circulating supply from CoinGecko; difficulty, hashrate and block height from mempool.space, refreshed every five minutes. Pool values are the letter's, from Savills, SIFMA and the World Gold Council. The model is also available as JSON at /odds/api/compute, with the same parameters this page puts in its permalink.

From The Odds, monthly commentary, October 2026: nxtmining.com/reports. Informational and educational only. Not investment advice.